Cat Eat Bird

I walk past a family of rank street cats every morning. Their fur is moppy, and, as you approach them, the cats cower, some retreating to the safety underneath the parked cars. The dirty gray matriarch with a reptilian half-tail, however, stands in defense and stares at you. Proud, exasperated, her gaze dares you to shoo her and her family away. I know that she continues to eye me down after I pass her. She's waiting for me to cross the street, the point of no-return.

They spend their days outside of a stinky fast food joint that serves the bored-to-death soldiers posted every ten-meters around the Ministry of Defense across the street. The stench of this place is a jumble of low quality bathroom cleaner, ruined lettuce, and wet bread. I hold my breath when I pass through the thick of it. Across the street, a giant, festive impressionist portrait of Hafez al Assad in a bling mirror frame hangs above the entrance to the Ministry of Defense.

Down the street, you hear the cooing of Arabic pop sensation, Fares Karam. The music is coming from the cellphone of the mustached soldier imprisoned in a booth outside of the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates, a 1970s austere concrete eyesore. Sometimes, he stands up to open the garage for the shiny black Jaguars. A few months ago, he planted a fake plastic flower with two "wet-drops" of wax on the petals in front of his booth. There is an opulent flower shop across the street; they sell real flowers. Today, I noticed his new yellow cockatiel. The bird cage hangs outside in the piercing desert cold. I wonder if he will bring the cage inside his booth tonight.

Economist: Syrian Economic Outlook for 2008-09

SYRIA COUNTRY VIEW: OUTLOOK FOR 2008-09
THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
EIU ViewsWire 01 Jan 2008

      * The  president, Bashar al-Assad, is expected to remain in power in 2008-09. He will continue to rely on the strength and loyalty of the security services, which will keep opposition forces weak and ineffective.
     * Mr  Assad  will  devote  considerable  effort to ending Syria's political isolation, but it is questionable whether  he  is  willing  to  make any concessions on Syria's strategic alliance with Iran or its desire to influence events in Lebanon.
     * Economic  policy  in 2008-09 will focus on the need to diversify the economy and on encouraging investment, but structural fiscal reform will be constrained by the fear of alienating public opinion.
     * Syrian  oil  output  is expected to fall markedly over the outlook period, which will reduce export volumes and  government spending (which is heavily dependent on the level of oil revenue) and thereby curb economic growth.
     * The  Syrian  pound  will  appreciate against the US dollar in 2008 (largely because of dollar weakness) but will depreciate in 2009 owing to concerns about export competitiveness.
     * The  trade  account  will  fall  into deficit in 2009, as the negative impact of falling oil production and exports is compounded by a modest decline in global oil prices.

   DOMESTIC  POLITICS: Power remains firmly in the hands of the president, who is supported by key elements in the security services and by the ruling Baath party. There appears little prospect that any serious challenge to Mr Assad's  regime  will  emerge  in the outlook period. Since assuming power following the death of his father in 2000,  Mr  Assad  has stepped up repression of local opposition groups and activists, and has appointed his own close  allies  to  key  posts.  This has increased his control, albeit at the cost of narrowing his power base. Importantly,  the core of the elite is drawn from Mr Assad's minority Alawi sect, and is acutely conscious that to move against him would risk endangering the Alawi hold on power.

   INTERNATIONAL  RELATIONS:  Although  Mr  Assad  may  have  secured  his domestic position, he faces a number of challenges in the international arena (which will have a profound bearing on his popularity at home). Efforts to  emerge from international isolation have been ongoing for much of the year, but in November, Syria received recognition  from  both  Europe  (in  particular, France) and Arab countries. The new French president, Nicolas Sarkozy,  opened channels of dialogue, culminating in a large, high-profile team of diplomats being sent to the capital, Damascus. The diplomatic initiative was ostensibly aimed at reaching an accommodation between pro- and anti-Syrian  forces  in  Lebanon,  but  was  probably  also  part  of  Mr Sarkozy's wider ambitions to create a "Mediterranean  union",  involving  Europe  and  the  southern and eastern littoral states. From the Syrian perspective, it seemed to confirm that Syria had the right to be consulted about the next Lebanese president.

   POLICY TRENDS:  The  soaring  cost  of  the fuel subsidy bill, which is placing an unsustainable burden on the fiscal  account,  has  led  to  heated  economic  debate  between the government's more reformist, technocratic elements, led by the deputy prime minister for economic affairs, Abdullah al-Dardari, and the more conservative Baath  party  members. Mr Dardari is pushing for structural fiscal reform, including cuts in fuel subsidies and the  introduction of a value-added tax (VAT). However, some Baath party members oppose these reforms, in part because of concern about their negative impact on disposable incomes. As a result, the proposed introduction of VAT  has now been delayed until 2009. Fuel subsidy cuts also appear to be on hold. Indeed, in late November the Ministry  of  Petroleum issued a tender invitation for the development of a smartcard system to administer fuel rationing.  The  Economist Intelligence Unit expects any cuts in fuel price subsidies to be piecemeal and to be offset by compensatory payments to low-income families.

   INTERNATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS: We forecast that world GDP growth will average 4.6% in 2008-09 (at purchasing powerparity  exchange rates), down from an estimated 5.1% in 2007, largely as a result of a sharp slowdown in the US economy in 2008. International oil prices are expected to remain high, however, as buoyant demand in emerging  markets  offsets  any  slowdown  in  OECD oil demand. The benchmark dated Brent Blend is expected to rise to an average  of  US$78/barrel  in  2008,  before  easing slightly to US$72/b in 2009, but risks are weighted on the upside.

   ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Syrian economy is expected to grow steadily over the outlook period, at an annual average rate of 4.5%, as falling oil production is offset by persistent expansion in the services sector, boosted by solid growth in tourism and demand for goods and services, in part from the large Iraqi refugee population. Our growth forecast is also underpinned by the expected recovery in the agricultural sector (after drought conditions in parts of the country depressed growth in 2007).

   INFLATION:  We  estimate  that  inflation will have eased in 2007 to an average of 7.4%, down from 10% in 2006. However, holiday-related demand for foodstuffs will have compounded the impact of higher global food costs, and the  increase  in petrol prices in November will feed through into distribution costs; as a result, we estimate that  the end-2007 inflation rate will have risen to 8.9%. Although we expect average inflation to rise to 8.7% in  2008,  it  will  fall over the year as the new exchange-rate regime helps to contain imported inflation and domestic demand pressure ebbs. In 2009 lower global oil and non-oil commodity prices will help to reduce the inflation rate to 5.9%. Moreover, a significant return of Iraqi nationals to Iraq would also lower inflationary demand  pressures in 2008-09. However, if the government were to enact more phased cuts in fuel price subsidies in 2008-09, this would lead to a significant upward revision to our inflation forecast.

   EXCHANGE RATES:  Since the beginning of October 2007 there has been a marked appreciation of the pound against the US dollar, suggesting that the new exchange-rate regime–a peg to a basket of currencies based on the IMF's special  drawing  rights–has  finally  been  implemented.  The  currency  will not be allowed to float freely, however, with the government continuing to prioritise stability. The regime is well placed to protect the value of  the  pound, because of the dominant position of the state-owned banks and the control that the Central Bank of  Syria  retains over foreign-currency transactions, even as some laws are relaxed. Consequently, we forecast that  the  pound  will  remain  relatively  stable  in  2008  (partly  as  a result of dollar weakness), before depreciating  modestly in 2009 owing to concerns about the competitiveness of Syria's non-oil exports (and some strengthening of the dollar against the euro).

   EXTERNAL SECTOR: We estimate that the value of merchandise exports will have risen in 2007, with strong growth in  non-oil  exports more than offsetting the decline in the value of oil exports. The estimated fall in oil export revenue is the result of lower Syrian oil production. Non-oil exports are continuing to benefit from the relaxation  of  foreign-exchange  controls, which has led to more exports being officially recorded, and strong regional demand.  We  have raised our forecast for export earnings in 2008 following an upward revision to our global  oil  price  assumption  for  that year. The higher price will offset the negative impact of falling oil production, and we expect still strong growth in non-oil export revenue. Import spending growth will also remain  strong in 2008-09, partly as a result of the ongoing process of tariff liberalisation. As a result of these  trends, the trade account will register a surplus of US$377m (0.8% of GDP) in 2008, slightly larger than in 2007, and a deficit of US$257m (0.5% of GDP) in 2009, as oil production falls and international oil prices ease.
Jan/03/2008

Syria's Deputy Premier Wants Further Relations with Turkey
BBC Monitor: Turkish news agency Anatolia.

Ankara, 3 January: The Syrian deputy prime minister for economic affairs, Abdallah Dardari and an accompanying delegation met officials of Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) in Ankara on Thursday [3 January].

Dardari said there is a common culture and a strong political grounds between Turkey and Syria, and relations between the two countries should be further developed for a much competitive place in global economy in the future.

Dardari also recalled that Turkey and Syria decided to cooperate in energy, natural gas, electricity, oil, transportation, railway, maritime and highway transportation.

He said officials agreed to build an organized industrial zone in Syria in association with Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB).

Dardari noted that Syria will adopt arbitration law and a Turkey-Syria joint arbitration board can be established.

Originally published by Anatolia news agency, Ankara, in English

Damascus (dpa) - Syria and Turkey have decided to form a joint oil exploration and development company bolstering the countries' cooperation in the oil sector, Syrian Oil Minister Sufian al-Alaw said Thursday.

With the project, the two neighboring countries will also cooperate on importing and exporting oil extracts, in addition to setting oil distribution stations in Syria, said al-Alaw, currently part of a high-profile economic delegation visiting Turkey.

According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, the countries had also discussed the possibility of importing natural gas from nearby Azerbaijan and Iran through a Turkish oil company, in addition to connecting Syria to the Turkish natural gas pipeline network. Syria's oil production has experienced a decline in the past few
years, with output falling to 370,000 barrels per day in 2007, from 380,000 barrels previously.

Memorable Orientalisms

Other: Is it just me, or does Arabic prose tend to read like a list all the time?  This happened, and then this happened, and then this...

Me: That sounds like a huge generalization--what Arabic prose have you read besides newspapers?

Other: (with a turn of the head) "Well, none, really, just the newspapers, and I'm reading a short novel..."

Damascus emerges as Arab cultural capital of 2008

DAMASCUS (AFP)












Damascus heads into a new year as the cultural capital of the Arab world for 2008, hosting a year-long series of theatrical and musical events, along with talks by renowned intellectuals.

American linguist and leftist intellectual Noam Chomsky, Czech writer Milan Kundera and Lebanon's famed songstress Fairouz are among the personalities coming to Syria as Damascus assumes the cultural mantle from Algiers.

But not everyone welcomes the planned events, with Syrian writer Ibrahim Haj Abdi calling them "ephemeral cultural festivities." "Syrian intellectuals might have believed these promises (by the organizers) if only they had been accompanied by efforts to free one of the country's most important intellectuals, Michel Kilo," he wrote in Sunday's pan-Arab daily newspaper Al-Hayat, published in London.

Kilo was jailed in 2006 for being a co-signatory of the Beirut-Damascus Declaration, along with nearly 300 Syrian and Lebanese intellectuals. In May this year he was sentenced to three years in prison.

The declaration called for an overhaul of ties between the two states and for Syrian recognition of the independence of Lebanon, where Damascus was the major powerbroker for three decades until 2005.

Twenty years after she last performed in Syria, Fairouz -- the greatest female Arab singer since Egypt's Umm Kalthoum -- will take to the stage on January 28.

In May a conference will bring together Chomsky, Kundera and novelist Isabel Allende, the daughter of former Chilean president Salvador Allende.

Another Syrian novelist writing in Al-Hayat also slammed the organizers of the year's festivities.

"My experience with the organizers quickly dismissed any hope... of seeing it revive the role of culture that has been destroyed over decades" in Syrian society, wrote Samar Yazbek.

The cultural year will get under way on January 10 with a fireworks display on Mount Qassiun overlooking Damascus, followed by an official ceremony nine days later.

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2007/12/28/43481.html

Great post from joshualandis.com

Five undeniable facts about the Syria that I saw / by Ehsani
Monday, December 24th, 2007

I have just returned from a short one-week trip to Syria. As you may recall, I had once written a note on this forum describing how Syria was made up of two countries: one for the one million well to do and another for the other 19 million. I will offer below a summary of my updated impressions since. My observations are predicated on list of what I consider to be five undeniable facts about the Syria that I saw.The first undeniable fact that I have encountered on this visit is the ever-widening gap between the poor and the wealthy of Syrian society. While this phenomenon has been in place for years, one cannot but take note of the recent acceleration in this trend. What makes this subject matter particularly interesting is the fact that Syria is still a supposedly socialist country. One would have thought that such excessive wealth concentration is the hallmark of more capitalist societies rather than Baathist ones. Perhaps the observation below can explain the reasons behind this process:

The second undeniable fact that one cannot ignore is the way with which Bashar is changing his father's long and heavy imprints on this country. For all practical purposes, Socialism is slowly but steadily being dismantled as an economic system. The new official title of course is "social market economy". The word "social" is presumably still there to assure the 19 million Syrians that they will still continue to receive their subsidized necessities and the most basic forms of state assistance. What is most noticeable, however, is the speed with which the "market economy" part of the new economic paradigm is spreading in the country. The new "Aishti" clothing store adjacent to the Four-Seasons hotel proudly advertises on its outside window the following:

Prada men's shoes – SYP 27,500
Brioni mens pants – SYP 22,000
Iceberg t-shirt – SYP 13,800
Armani dress for ladies – SYP 248,500

One cannot help but wonder how the late Hafez Assad would have reacted had he seen these prices displayed in his so-called Baathist capital

Syria's push for increased investments:

The country is abuzz with the latest wave of foreign and domestic investments. The leadership has done an outstanding job in this endeavor. Not a week passes by without an announcement of a new wave of investments from Qatar, Kuwait, U.A.E. or Saudi Arabia. Similar announcements seem to come from domestic investors in the new "holdings" companies that have been set up. Those that have already taken the risk of investing have thus far been handsomely rewarded by having seen the value of their investments in real estate (mostly still empty land) rise rather dramatically. This has encouraged more investments and a virtuous circle of higher prices and more investments to take place. The third undeniable fact is that there is no going back in this trend towards opening up the country to foreign investments and a more liberalized economy.

Whether this trend has been driven by political necessity or by genuine belief in the merits of free markets is an open question. My suspicion is that it is more likely to be the latter. It is important to note that the pace of the economic reforms is unlikely to go in overdrive mode. Instead, it will more likely be of the sure and steady variety. The already wealthy will get even richer while the poor will struggle with higher inflation and falling real wages.

The fourth undeniable fact is that the country's fiscal budget will continue to feel the stress in the years ahead. One cannot help but be struck by how little the very wealthy are taxed. It is imperative that this broken system receives a comprehensive overhaul. Similar taxation reforms are sorely needed in the real estate area. A major reassessment needs to take place in order to more accurately reflect the new market value of real estate pricing and hence taxes levied. 

The fifth undeniable fact is that while economic reforms will continue, political reforms are unlikely to follow suit at anywhere near the same pace. This leadership appears to be extremely comfortable with its ability to hold on to power. The young leader appears to be in an absolute control of his country. Those that refuse to believe this are denying what seems to be the obvious. In this atmosphere, the pressure to offer political concessions is close to nil. The late Hafez Assad had built an incredible security apparatus that has come to resemble a fortress. It did not take the new President much time to fully appreciate the value of this intricate system that he had inherited. It seems inconceivable that he will take any risk in this area. Calls for political reform will be viewed as nothing but a trap and a slippery slope that must be avoided. Human rights advocates, for example, are likely to be sorely disappointed with the government's willingness to deliver.

Conclusion:

Bashar is steadily but slowly dismantling the old socialist nature of his father's reign. He is too clever and too cautious to do this on faster scale. He is fully aware of the economic challenges faced by the vast majority of his people. Given the need to grow the economy and fix his country's fiscal mess, opening the economy to foreign direct investments is a decision that is irreversible. The rich will continue to get richer in this environment. On the political front, Bashar is unlikely to loosen his grip and institute any significant reforms. Egypt has been down this before and it may well offer a similar model of more economic liberalism without the political reforms to match. Come to think of it, is the ultra successful economic model of Dubai any different?

On the Last Day of Eid

Today, I laid rose petals on Byzantine ruins and lied down on broken walls with flowers across my chest.

Interregnum

I wanted to get Indian with my friend, E, last night, but she couldn't make it because she was at the Syria-Iraq border.

This morning, she briefly touched on her experience.  She was visiting a refugee camp that sits, literally, in between the borders of Iraq and Syria.  There are around 500 or so Palestinians in this year-old refugee camp.  They are living in tents, and only two months ago were electricity and running water installed in this camp.  They fled the violence in Baghdad and had hoped to enter Syria last year but, because of their refugee status, were denied entry.  They had no where to go, so they set up tents between the borders.

Delegations from Chile and Sudan have offered to take in some of the female refugees, rupturing families and leaving young men behind.